ramashiva and the doom switch
The following is made in response to a post by John Fish in my RGP thread "the poker hierarchy and the doom switch, or the iceman farteth".
John usually seems to be very intelligent, but he sometimes posts absolute nonsense, such as praising and supporting Ann Coulter.
He is a right-wing libertarian and I am a left-wing libertarian, so John and I agree on more political issues than we disagree on.
Still, his occasional moronic brownshirt fuck outbursts irritate me so much that I would have killfiled him long ago, except for one thing --
His posts sometimes stimulate me to make what I consider to be some of my best posts --
the post you are reading right now.
"OT: Left-wing libertarians and right-wing libertarians".
the forthcoming post "OT: Ramashiva on Guns and Ammunition".
So here is what I had to say to Mr. Fish regarding ramashiva and the doom switch --
Ramashiva -- I think Poker Stars has also abandoned the weak doom switch, because my results have been matching my EV for quite some time.
By the way, I am only making these allegations about Poker Stars, because I have not seen the doom switch in action at other online poker rooms. Nevertheless, ALL internet poker rooms have a stong incentive to handicap the expert players to keep them from draining the bathtub too fast. If the fish all rapidly go broke and need to redeposit, the fish will go to a cardroom which is more fish friendly.
Fish -- Interesting. I play at most of the major sites and find that Stars is the only one that I cannot seem to win at. I had always attributed this to my sense that the players are generally better at Stars for a given limit. I had never considered the possibility of a weak doom switch. Hmmm... could it be?
Ramashiva -- I cannot prove conclusively that there is such a thing as a doom switch, weak or strong. If Poker Stars did indeed employ a doom switch at one time, their programmers are obviously smart enough to implement the doom switch in such a way that no statistical evidence can ever be produced. For example, they could easily set up the weak doom switch so the percentage of draws made by both you and your opponents matches the expected percentage. Yet they could activate the weak doom switch ONLY on big pots, so you would still be getting fucked, but there would be no statistical evidence of the weak doom switch fucking you over.
This isn't some weird idea which suddenly occurred to me. I posted about the doom switch in great detail on 2+2 in 2002, BEFORE I ever posted to RGP. My posts created a huge furor on the Internet Gambling Forum.
The usual bullshit of "let's see the hand histories" was thrown in my face. LMFAO!!! You really think the Poker Stars programmers are so stupid that hand histories could prove the existence of a weak doom switch???
I based my conclusion that Poker Stars utilized a doom switch on my personal experience playing at Poker Stars after playing for two years or so in $2/$4 limit holdem on Paradise Poker.
When I first started playing at Poker Stars, I was amazed at how poorly the $2/$4 players at Poker Stars played. Ask anyone who played $2/$4 limit holdem at Paradise Poker in the time frame 2000 to 2002. The games were absolutely brutal, comparable to a typical $10/$20 game either online or B&M.
By comparison, the $2/$4 players at Poker Stars were clueless fish. When I first started playing at Poker Stars, I crushed the $2/$4 games. Then I cashed out most of my winnings. I don't remember the exact numbers, but I think it was around $700.
At that point, Poker Stars had a large enough statistical sample to know for sure I would drain about $1000/week from the $2/$4 games if I played four simultaneous games.
After my cashout, I hit an absolute wall. I have taken graduate courses in statistics. I know exactly what constitutes a statistically significant sample. My play during the reign of the doom switch was much larger than necessary to be statistically significant. Sorry to be so vague, but I made these 2+2 posts four years ago. 2+2 conveniently deleted all my posts when I was banned, so the damning evidence against Poker Stars would no longer exist. I still have these posts on SCSI hard drives which I was using at the time, but which I no longer use. I could retrieve these posts if I had sufficient motivation to do so.
The question is, why did 2+2 delete all my posts after they barred me? I don't believe that is their standard procedure after they ban a player. Sure looks like a coverup to me.
Anyway, over a period of several weeks, I couldn't win a hand no matter what. It was beyond ridiculous. There was also a particular player whose handle escapes me, who would frequently show up in my games and show me the strong doom switch.
It became obvious to me that Poker Stars did not want my action, so I went back to Paradise Poker, where I started consistently beating the tough $2/$4 games once more.
When I posted my suspicions about a doom switch at Poker Stars on 2+2, the shills for the online poker rooms on 2+2 told me I was just another losing player trying to explain away my losses. To no avail I explained to them that I was still a big net winner on Poker Stars. I gave up on Poker Stars when it became obvious there was something very strange going on, since I almost never made a draw, while my opponents made their draws much more frequently than expected.
That's all I have is suspicion, with results indicating something fishy (sorry for the pun) was going on on Poker Stars.
Something else very strange happened while I was completely dominating the Internet Gambling Forum. At the time of my banning, four of the top ten threads viewed were either by me or about me. In the midst of the turmoil, a post was made by "Poker Stars Support", indicating that they had the proof that I was making my draws as often as expected, and that my opponents were not getting lucky in their draws.
This was the first post ever by "Poker Stars Support". There is no way of knowing whether this was really from Poker Stars, or just a troll post. At the time, no registration was necessary, so anyone could post with any handle.
My reply to "Poker Stars Support" was to supply me with ALL my hand histories since I started playing at Poker Stars. I told them I was quite capable of doing my own statistical analysis of draw percentages pre-cashout and post-cashout to determine if there was a statistically significant difference in pre-cashout and post-cashout draw percentages. "Poker Stars Support" never responded to my challenge.
Unfortunately, I was not using Poker Tracker at the time. I don't recall if Poker Tracker even existed in 2002. I think it had just come out. As I recall, it was unwieldly to use. I recall using it at Paradise Poker after I returned to Paradise Poker. I had to manually request hand histories via email, convert the email into a text file, then import it into Poker Tracker. Poker Tracker was supposed to import hand history emails directly without conversion to a text file, but I could never get this feature to work.
At the time, I am pretty sure Poker Tracker required this cumbersome procedure for all poker rooms, not just Paradise Poker. It was only later that Poker Stars and other poker rooms offered automatic importation of hand histories stored on your hard drive.
Anyway, for whatever reason, I was not using Poker Tracker on Poker Stars. If I had been, I could have conclusively shown the existence of a doom switch. I think the widespread use of Poker Tracker has caused Poker Stars and possibly other poker rooms to abandon the doom switch. It would be extremely difficult to cover up the doom switch when many players have Poker Tracker databases of their entire play at Poker Stars.
I am now pretty sure Poker Stars no longer employs the doom switch. Maybe they only use the doom switch to get rid of players whom they suspect are cheating, or who irritate management in some other way.
I am really not concerned about a doom switch at Poker Stars. As I already said, my Poker Tracker results match closely what I know to be my expected big bets per hundred hands against the level of competition in the $2/$4 limit holdem games.
As long as that trend continues, I couldn't care less if I am playing against a weak doom switch. Show me the money. That's all I care about.
Here is a challenge to 2+2 -- You no doubt have my deleted posts stored on some server. Restore those posts and let's see what I said in 2002.
Here is a challenge to Poker Stars -- Surely you have all the hand histories for all hands I ever played. Please send me an email containing all my hand histories from day 1 until the time I posted my doom switch allegations on 2+2.
I will import the emailed hand histories into a new Poker Tracker database. Then the issue can be settled once and for all.
I am barred at 2+2, so I cannot make the challenge. I have secret identities at 2+2, but if I make the challenge with one of these identities, they will obviously know it is me. If anyone is interested, post on 2+2 challenging them to restore my deleted posts.
I obviously have no interest in hassling Poker Stars Support about this. I have hassled them a lot over the years on a variety of issues. I fear that if I hassle them on this issue, they will flip the doom switch again.
If someone else wants to challenge Poker Stars to produce my early hand histories for analysis, go right ahead. I give Poker Stars permission to make these hand histories public, so the entire RGP community can analyze these hand histories for the existence of a doom switch.
I would like to see this issue definitively resolved, one way or another. I have a sneaking suspicion that neither 2+2 nor Poker Stars will be at all interested in revisiting the issue of ramashiva (my original 2+2 handle, as well as my handle at Poker Stars and Paradise Poker) versus the doom switch.
Again, I am not going to hassle either 2+2 or Poker Stars about this. My philosophy is to let sleeping dogs lie. If someone else wants to stir up some shit about ramashiva and the doom switch, you have my permission to do so, including making the hand histories in question available for public analysis on RGP.
John usually seems to be very intelligent, but he sometimes posts absolute nonsense, such as praising and supporting Ann Coulter.
He is a right-wing libertarian and I am a left-wing libertarian, so John and I agree on more political issues than we disagree on.
Still, his occasional moronic brownshirt fuck outbursts irritate me so much that I would have killfiled him long ago, except for one thing --
His posts sometimes stimulate me to make what I consider to be some of my best posts --
the post you are reading right now.
"OT: Left-wing libertarians and right-wing libertarians".
the forthcoming post "OT: Ramashiva on Guns and Ammunition".
So here is what I had to say to Mr. Fish regarding ramashiva and the doom switch --
Ramashiva -- I think Poker Stars has also abandoned the weak doom switch, because my results have been matching my EV for quite some time.
By the way, I am only making these allegations about Poker Stars, because I have not seen the doom switch in action at other online poker rooms. Nevertheless, ALL internet poker rooms have a stong incentive to handicap the expert players to keep them from draining the bathtub too fast. If the fish all rapidly go broke and need to redeposit, the fish will go to a cardroom which is more fish friendly.
Fish -- Interesting. I play at most of the major sites and find that Stars is the only one that I cannot seem to win at. I had always attributed this to my sense that the players are generally better at Stars for a given limit. I had never considered the possibility of a weak doom switch. Hmmm... could it be?
Ramashiva -- I cannot prove conclusively that there is such a thing as a doom switch, weak or strong. If Poker Stars did indeed employ a doom switch at one time, their programmers are obviously smart enough to implement the doom switch in such a way that no statistical evidence can ever be produced. For example, they could easily set up the weak doom switch so the percentage of draws made by both you and your opponents matches the expected percentage. Yet they could activate the weak doom switch ONLY on big pots, so you would still be getting fucked, but there would be no statistical evidence of the weak doom switch fucking you over.
This isn't some weird idea which suddenly occurred to me. I posted about the doom switch in great detail on 2+2 in 2002, BEFORE I ever posted to RGP. My posts created a huge furor on the Internet Gambling Forum.
The usual bullshit of "let's see the hand histories" was thrown in my face. LMFAO!!! You really think the Poker Stars programmers are so stupid that hand histories could prove the existence of a weak doom switch???
I based my conclusion that Poker Stars utilized a doom switch on my personal experience playing at Poker Stars after playing for two years or so in $2/$4 limit holdem on Paradise Poker.
When I first started playing at Poker Stars, I was amazed at how poorly the $2/$4 players at Poker Stars played. Ask anyone who played $2/$4 limit holdem at Paradise Poker in the time frame 2000 to 2002. The games were absolutely brutal, comparable to a typical $10/$20 game either online or B&M.
By comparison, the $2/$4 players at Poker Stars were clueless fish. When I first started playing at Poker Stars, I crushed the $2/$4 games. Then I cashed out most of my winnings. I don't remember the exact numbers, but I think it was around $700.
At that point, Poker Stars had a large enough statistical sample to know for sure I would drain about $1000/week from the $2/$4 games if I played four simultaneous games.
After my cashout, I hit an absolute wall. I have taken graduate courses in statistics. I know exactly what constitutes a statistically significant sample. My play during the reign of the doom switch was much larger than necessary to be statistically significant. Sorry to be so vague, but I made these 2+2 posts four years ago. 2+2 conveniently deleted all my posts when I was banned, so the damning evidence against Poker Stars would no longer exist. I still have these posts on SCSI hard drives which I was using at the time, but which I no longer use. I could retrieve these posts if I had sufficient motivation to do so.
The question is, why did 2+2 delete all my posts after they barred me? I don't believe that is their standard procedure after they ban a player. Sure looks like a coverup to me.
Anyway, over a period of several weeks, I couldn't win a hand no matter what. It was beyond ridiculous. There was also a particular player whose handle escapes me, who would frequently show up in my games and show me the strong doom switch.
It became obvious to me that Poker Stars did not want my action, so I went back to Paradise Poker, where I started consistently beating the tough $2/$4 games once more.
When I posted my suspicions about a doom switch at Poker Stars on 2+2, the shills for the online poker rooms on 2+2 told me I was just another losing player trying to explain away my losses. To no avail I explained to them that I was still a big net winner on Poker Stars. I gave up on Poker Stars when it became obvious there was something very strange going on, since I almost never made a draw, while my opponents made their draws much more frequently than expected.
That's all I have is suspicion, with results indicating something fishy (sorry for the pun) was going on on Poker Stars.
Something else very strange happened while I was completely dominating the Internet Gambling Forum. At the time of my banning, four of the top ten threads viewed were either by me or about me. In the midst of the turmoil, a post was made by "Poker Stars Support", indicating that they had the proof that I was making my draws as often as expected, and that my opponents were not getting lucky in their draws.
This was the first post ever by "Poker Stars Support". There is no way of knowing whether this was really from Poker Stars, or just a troll post. At the time, no registration was necessary, so anyone could post with any handle.
My reply to "Poker Stars Support" was to supply me with ALL my hand histories since I started playing at Poker Stars. I told them I was quite capable of doing my own statistical analysis of draw percentages pre-cashout and post-cashout to determine if there was a statistically significant difference in pre-cashout and post-cashout draw percentages. "Poker Stars Support" never responded to my challenge.
Unfortunately, I was not using Poker Tracker at the time. I don't recall if Poker Tracker even existed in 2002. I think it had just come out. As I recall, it was unwieldly to use. I recall using it at Paradise Poker after I returned to Paradise Poker. I had to manually request hand histories via email, convert the email into a text file, then import it into Poker Tracker. Poker Tracker was supposed to import hand history emails directly without conversion to a text file, but I could never get this feature to work.
At the time, I am pretty sure Poker Tracker required this cumbersome procedure for all poker rooms, not just Paradise Poker. It was only later that Poker Stars and other poker rooms offered automatic importation of hand histories stored on your hard drive.
Anyway, for whatever reason, I was not using Poker Tracker on Poker Stars. If I had been, I could have conclusively shown the existence of a doom switch. I think the widespread use of Poker Tracker has caused Poker Stars and possibly other poker rooms to abandon the doom switch. It would be extremely difficult to cover up the doom switch when many players have Poker Tracker databases of their entire play at Poker Stars.
I am now pretty sure Poker Stars no longer employs the doom switch. Maybe they only use the doom switch to get rid of players whom they suspect are cheating, or who irritate management in some other way.
I am really not concerned about a doom switch at Poker Stars. As I already said, my Poker Tracker results match closely what I know to be my expected big bets per hundred hands against the level of competition in the $2/$4 limit holdem games.
As long as that trend continues, I couldn't care less if I am playing against a weak doom switch. Show me the money. That's all I care about.
Here is a challenge to 2+2 -- You no doubt have my deleted posts stored on some server. Restore those posts and let's see what I said in 2002.
Here is a challenge to Poker Stars -- Surely you have all the hand histories for all hands I ever played. Please send me an email containing all my hand histories from day 1 until the time I posted my doom switch allegations on 2+2.
I will import the emailed hand histories into a new Poker Tracker database. Then the issue can be settled once and for all.
I am barred at 2+2, so I cannot make the challenge. I have secret identities at 2+2, but if I make the challenge with one of these identities, they will obviously know it is me. If anyone is interested, post on 2+2 challenging them to restore my deleted posts.
I obviously have no interest in hassling Poker Stars Support about this. I have hassled them a lot over the years on a variety of issues. I fear that if I hassle them on this issue, they will flip the doom switch again.
If someone else wants to challenge Poker Stars to produce my early hand histories for analysis, go right ahead. I give Poker Stars permission to make these hand histories public, so the entire RGP community can analyze these hand histories for the existence of a doom switch.
I would like to see this issue definitively resolved, one way or another. I have a sneaking suspicion that neither 2+2 nor Poker Stars will be at all interested in revisiting the issue of ramashiva (my original 2+2 handle, as well as my handle at Poker Stars and Paradise Poker) versus the doom switch.
Again, I am not going to hassle either 2+2 or Poker Stars about this. My philosophy is to let sleeping dogs lie. If someone else wants to stir up some shit about ramashiva and the doom switch, you have my permission to do so, including making the hand histories in question available for public analysis on RGP.
posted by William Coleman at 10:37 PM
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